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Emerging Threats to U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers and the Russian Arctic Challenge

For over seven decades, aircraft carriers have ruled the high seas. No other navy has ever challenged the maritime supremacy of the U.S. Navy and its 11 supercarriers. Yet these gigantic vessels are facing new sets of challenges that may dent their hitherto invincible position.

Hypersonic missiles: They remain the most ominous threat to aircraft carriers today. Traveling at many times the speed of sound, it will be daunting for today’s air defense to intercept or take out. Given the uncertainties about the capability of existing systems to intercept them, hypersonic missiles have grown into a formidable opponent-mostly in potential conflicts with near-peer competitors.

Torpedoes: The most tried and tested method, having historical precedent in sinking carriers. Though anti-submarine warfare is strong, it is by no means infallible. For example, a small Swedish submarine penetrated U.S. carrier defenses during a training exercise in the early 2000s and managed to land a few simulated hits.

Drone Swarms: Also in the future, swarms of drones could be another potential threat. While less destructive compared to hypersonic missiles or torpedoes, they are individually cheaper and can be produced by the hundreds. Enemy forces would have to launch hundreds of drones to saturate the defenses of a carrier.

Suicide Boats: Again, similar to drone swarms, suicide boats might be an efficient threat if launched en masse. The problem is in stockpiling a large number of such boats and reaching a carrier undetected.

Special Operations Forces: There is a risk of sabotage to aircraft carriers in wartime from special operations forces; examples include the disabling by the Royal Navy of the German battleship Tirpitz in the Second World War and Italian Navy operations which sank several British battleships in Alexandria, Egypt.

The war in Ukraine has significantly degraded Russia’s conventional military capability including its Arctic component. Numerous Northern Fleet assets have been forward-deployed to the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Ukraine, including Marshal Ustinov, one of the remaining Slava-class cruisers. No Northern Fleet warships or submarines have been reported destroyed in the current conflict.

However, the majority of the Russian Arctic units, especially ground forces, have taken heavy casualties. The 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 61st Independent Naval Brigade have been heavily engaged, with reports indicating a battalion tactical group of the 200th was destroyed. The Special Underwater Forces unit 69068, a unit trained for reconnaissance and sabotage, might as well have been destroyed too.

Sanctions and export controls have contributed to the tough situation of the Russian defense industry, which impacts the future capabilities of the Northern Fleet. The most ambitious project of the Lider-class destroyer contribution to the fleet has its funding and development issues. The aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is currently in repair, while the completion date of other assets still needs to be made clear.

Sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard, with imports from sanctioning countries collapsing by more than 50%. Although there is some resilience example, India has increased their purchases of Russian the defense sector is finding it difficult to produce high-tech capability because it relies on foreign technology. For example, the main armored vehicle manufacturer has stopped producing tanks due to a lack of foreign parts.

The withdrawal of Russia’s ground-based forces from the Kola Peninsula has reduced the possibility of an effective rapid ground invasion into western neighbors in the Arctic. However, the naval elements of the Northern Fleet, most especially its strategic submarine fleet, still offer a valid second strike capability. Sanctions will generally mark a limit to the precision munitions that Russia can engage in assault against Arctic NATO allies, but its air defense capability is almost unmarred.

While U.S. aircraft carriers are vulnerable to emerging hostile threats from advanced weaponry and asymmetrical tactics, Russia’s Arctic capabilities are stretched by the conflict in Ukraine and economic sanctions. This no doubt underlines an evolving military landscape of vigilance and adaptation in maintaining maritime and regional security.

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