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Thursday, October 3, 2024

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Harris vs. Trump: Favorability Ratings and Debate Dynamics

Kamala Harris’s favorability ratings have improved significantly since Joe Biden exited the presidential race and she emerged as the Democratic nominee. Today, 44% of U.S. adults hold a favorable view of Harris, up 8 points from May. Meanwhile, the favorability of Donald Trump has inched up to 42%, from 39% three months ago.

Improvement in favorability ratings for Harris and Trump are largely confined to their respective parties. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 83% view Harris favorably, a significant increase from 65% in May. On the other side, only 9% of Republicans and GOP leaners have a favorable view of Harris, while 89% view her unfavorably.

Trump’s favorability with Republicans has risen 5 points since May to 79%, its best in at least two years. His rating among Democrats meanwhile remains overwhelmingly negative, with 92% holding an unfavorable opinion.

Joe Biden is no longer a candidate but still broadly unpopular: 37% of the nation sees him favorably, while 62% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Biden’s ratings have changed very little in the past year – his numbers have ticked slightly upward among Democrats, from 67% to 70%.

One crucial qualification of Kamala Harris’s viability is her favorability rating of 47.3% out of 214 polls. It is considered one of the most important ways of measuring her value as a politician and her potential to bring out voters in her name for president.

A June 27 presidential debate between Biden and Trump marked a turning point; Biden dropped out of the race on July 21. In the months since, Harris has surged to the top of the ticket, well ahead of Trump in the polls. Harris heads into Tuesday’s debate with rising approval numbers and a slight lead in national polling thanks in part to excitement among her base after the Democratic National Convention.

Recent polling suggests voters think Harris has run a good campaign and is the candidate most likely to win the debate, but Trump has an advantage on important issues such as the economy and immigration. Harris has advantages on issues such as abortion and race relations, but those rank well down the list of issues in importance for voters compared with the economy and immigration.

In personal comparison, Harris generally comes out better than Trump. She is considered to be more honest and trustworthy, and more Americans say she has better physical health and mental sharpness to effectively function as president. This dynamic is even more notable with Harris being far younger than both Biden and Trump.

The debate will be highly watched, giving both candidates a high-profile opportunity to make a case to voters. The country will be watching to see whether Harris can live up to the high expectations set for her and how Trump will respond in their first head-to-head matchup.

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